A decade following the UK entered into a rushed public vote that split the nation and triggered turmoil, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim such a time is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the absence of serious debate, stated McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or activists want to engage with the essentials. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Each authors two articles that strive for impartiality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering economic and social statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates range over identity markers, duties, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they support unity but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid arguments, he said. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will eventually lose but both parties has got something to gain from the alternative positions."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
